You want to win your Oscar pool, but you also want to know if the movies are actually any good. I’ve got you covered on both fronts. Without further ado, here is what I think are the most deserving choices for each category this year, and what I think the Academy will actually give each award to.

Best Animated Short

Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses

For me, this was the best animated short this year by far. The way the narration and animation evokes memories of the experiences it depicts (the smell of an expo marker, the sound of old speakers playing music too loud, the feeling of cold water dripping on your skin), combined with the surprisingly emotional narrative make this an extremely charming and affecting watch.

Will Win: Letter to a Pig

This is the chalk answer this year. Personally, I found this short to be lacking thematic focus toward the end, but I can see it being regarded as important by the Academy. Side note: WAR IS OVER: Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko is as dumb and childish as the song that inspired it and if it wins (which it might, people love The Beatles) it will be a major disservice to the art form.

Best Live-Action Short

Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

I loved this category this year, and I have to say: I would be punching the air if I made Invincible or Red White and Blue or Knight of Fortune in the same year Wes Anderson decided to make a 39 minute Roald Dahl adaptation for Netflix. Those three aforementioned films are absolutely worth checking out (especially Knight of Fortune, the Scandinavian film scene is getting real hot recently).

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

All that said, this happens to be the year Wes Anderson decided to make a 39 minute Roald Dahl adaptation for Netflix and it is delightful. This is the best one and the Academy will probably say so.

Best Documentary Short

Should Win: Nai Nai and Wai Po

This was just a very charming, quick documentary made by a young filmmaker that deserves to be recognized.

Will Win: The Last Repair Shop

While The ABCs of Book Banning is the favorite here, this category is usually unpredictable and I found that particular title to be really standard, even lazy, despite its important subject matter. I’m going with the second favorite here, just because the louder opinions seem to agree with my assessment.

Best Song

Should Win: What Was I Made for? – Barbie

Yeah this is the best one, and it’s the one that best serves the movie it’s used in. Honorable mention to “I’m just Ken”

Will Win: What Was I Made for? – Barbie

Very likely they get this one right.

Best Sound

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

The way that sound is used in this movie is the most interesting and effective part of the movie, and it’s the most interesting and effective use of sound in all the movies nominated. This movie doesn’t work without the sound, sound is the whole idea really. Oppenheimer also uses sound in an interesting way, but The Zone of Interest has the lead by a nose for me.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

In a category that’s usually used to dump a few good action movies into the nominee pool, it’s rare that there are multiple movies that actually use sound effectively and creatively as part of their storytelling. This year we have that and I think this will be a close race, but Oppenheimer has the wave of support coming from other categories that I think will give it the edge.

Best Visual Effects

Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

What’s most impressive about this is that it secured the Visual Effects nomination on only a $10M budget (compared to nearly $300M for Mission: Impossible, which honestly had some rough CGI in places). I don’t really love any of the other movies here and their visual effects don’t particularly wow me (though I was tempted to give this to Napoleon for the Austerlitz sequence).

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

I think this wins here over The Creator, though they appear to be neck and neck in the odds. I just think The Creator is trending down as most people agree it’s not a very good movie (despite whether it looks good), and I think people will want to recognize a smaller movie that looks great on a low budget.

Best Documentary Feature

Should Win: The Eternal Memory

I found this to be a pretty cool portrait of a man struggling with declining mental health, and I thought the way the information was revealed throughout the film, in addition to the films conception in the first place, was all very smart.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

This is a stone cold lock. The images in this movie are incredibly disturbing and the Academy is sure to deem them important to be seen broadly.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Maestro

The Bradley Cooper nose controversy aside, I thought him and Carey Mulligan looked incredible throughout the different phases of the characters’ lives, especially old Leonard Bernstein, that was a serious ‘how did they do this’ moment for me.

Will Win: Poor Things

However, I think people are generally just not excited about Maestro the way they are about Poor Things, which has a very loud hair and makeup showcase with what they did with the Willem Dafoe character.

Best Costume Design

Should Win: Barbie

I rewatched this recently and at one point audibly asked “How is every single outfit iconic?” Not only do they evoke the Barbie iconography and embody the thematic messages of the film, but they just look so good. Bravo.

Will Win: Poor Things

While I thought the costumes in Poor Things were off-putting, I can see the Academy giving the edge to this for its creativity and originality compared to Barbie which had more source material to base the costumes on. This is a very close race and it could go either way, but my bet is on Poor Things.

Best Score

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Ludwig Göransson snapped. There’s no other answer here. Aside: I found Poor Things‘ score to be really grating, and I know it serves the story, I see what it’s doing, but it just made me squirm and not in a good way. Aside 2: John Williams a living American treasure who has given us some of the best and most important work in, not just film scoring, but modern concert music in general. That said I’m not sure we needed to recognize him for the 5th iteration of his classic Indiana Jones score. Feels like we could have slotted in something like Spider-Verse here which also has an incredible score.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Lock it in, this is a done deal.

Best Animated Feature

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

As discussed in my earlier post about what the Oscars missed, this film should be in contention for Best Picture, not just Best Animated Feature. But alas, this is the highest honor this lovely film can earn on the big night. That’s a tragedy of itself, but what’s worse is it may not even do that (see below).

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Interestingly Spider-Verse is actually the favorite here, which obviously I think would be the right choice, but I just have a hard time imagining Miyazaki losing this race. This movie was critically praised, and Miyazaki is a legend of animation at the end of his career, I think his power is being underestimated here. I’ll be glad to be wrong on this one.

Best International Feature

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

This movie is pretty good! It’s weird and cerebral and demands a lot of its viewer, but it’s a thoughtful and well executed exploration of the unbelievable nature its subject.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

It’s nominated for Best Picture, so you can pretty much lock this one in.

Best Film Editing

Should Win: Oppenheimer

The opening 20 minutes, the trinity sequence, and the balance of the multiple timelines are all really hard to pull off and require a surgical editing job. The editing is big part of what makes this so successful and it is a real achievement.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Like Best Sound, the Academy often gives this award for Most Editing, which this movie definitely qualifies for. Add in the fact that this movie is the Best Picture favorite and expected to sweep the technical categories and you’ve got another no-brainer.

Best Production Design

Should Win: Barbie

The creation of Barbieland is incredible to look at and it looks so real. A lesser filmmaker would have filmed this in the volume and the entire thing would look like a B- Marvel movie. The dedication to make this setting look good was as important to the success of the movie as anything else.

Will Win: Poor Things

This is another tight race between Barbie and Poor Things, and once again I think the Academy will lean away from the more corporate-friendly Barbie in favor of the more outwardly auteur-driven and transgressive film. Disappointing for me, but I just think the recent Poor Things surge will be too powerful.

Best Cinematography

Should Win: Oppenheimer

The way this movie looks and feels so chaotic and suffocating while also being limited to almost exclusively practical effects is not to be overlooked. Pretty good stuff in here.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

The Oppenheimer wave is palpable.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: American Fiction

This is the screenplay of the year for me. Cord Jefferson, as a first time filmmaker (after writing for TV for many years) knocks it out of the park, expertly juxtaposing the films antithesis (the stereotypical ‘Black Story’) with its own counterexample. While borrowing this concept from the book, Jefferson makes the story his own, adapting it to be accessible and even fun. I can’t recommend this movie enough.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

American Fiction is the favorite currently, and as stated above, it should be the winner. However, I think extracting the Oppenheimer screenplay from the 700-page American Prometheus is very impressive and Oppenheimer is more seen, more revered, and more discussed around the academy than American Fiction. I think it has the edge.

Best Original Screenplay

Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Out of the nominees this year, this is the screenplay I keep thinking about. It’s tense, expertly paced, intriguing yet unknowable. One of the best films of the year and the best out of the original screenplay nominees.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers has a chance to take this, but I think the steam on that movie has really run out as we get closer to the ceremony, so I think the favorite is safe here.

Best Supporting Actress

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Unfortunately, this is a really weak category this year. No shade to Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who is great in The Holdovers, but most of these nominees are smaller roles that don’t have a lot of that Oscars oomph that you usually see from the nominated performances. Apologies to Rachel McAdams who was incredible in Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret! Oh what could have been.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

She has won every single precursor, and as mentioned above, the competition is thin. Congratulations to her, this is a lock.

Best Supporting Actor

Should Win: Ryan Gosling – Barbie

This is one of the best supporting performances of the past 5 years. Discussed in detail in my review of Barbie, Gosling is so good it’s almost a flaw of the movie, distracting from the main protagonists journey. Justice for the #1 Hollywood Ryan.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

This has been sold for months as a closed deal. He’s won a whole mess of precursor awards, and there is pretty much nobody picking anybody else. It is a great performance, though I am generally perplexed how this became so much of a steam roller. In any case, it seems a bet anywhere else will be more like a donation to the house.

Best Lead Actress

Should Win: Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall

This is a wild pick from me, but to be perfectly honest, I just wasn’t personally wowed by either horse in this two-horse race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. I do however think Sandra Hüller was really excellent in Anatomy of a Fall, walking the very delicate line between anxious and untrustworthy, keeping you guessing through the very end.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

That said, Sandra Hüller will very likely not be the winner unless there is some kind of weird vote split between the two favorites. This is as close a race as you can get, this is one of the premier question marks on the ceremony this year. I give the edge to Gladstone for two reasons. Firstly, Emma Stone has already won an Oscar, so I think the Academy will want to recognize someone new. Secondly, I think the historic nature of Lily Gladstone becoming the first Native American to win in Best Actress will not only be important, but the kind of important that will sway the opinions of Academy voters. I’ll be greatly anticipating the results of this one!

Best Lead Actor

Should Win: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

While Cillian Murphy is great in Oppenheimer, I think the close intimate nature of The Holdovers, allows us to get in closer to Paul Giamatti’s character and really observe the nuance of the performance he’s giving there. You just want to give him a hug by the end of the movie.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Giamatti has a shot to win, but I just think the power of Oppenheimer is too strong and Cillian Murphy will be victorious. I can’t say I’ll be too upset about it either, Cillian Murphy is the man and I will be glad to see him recognized so he can go back to his well-earned, cozy, unbothered life away from the press in Ireland. God bless.

Best Director

Should Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

In a year where so many legendary filmmakers returned to the screen, Christopher Nolan, a legend in his own right, has really used his powers for good this year. In my opinion, he had been lost slightly since Inception (or possibly before depending on your thoughts on that film), his obsession with sleek practical visuals and time-warping plots hindering his delivery of a coherent story. This year he did it – he was able to meld these things brilliantly in one of the best films of the year that manages to be both of its time and a comment on history. It is perhaps over-hyped leading up to this years Oscars, but some measure of recognition is really necessary for this achievement, and out of the nominees here, this one feels like the clear choice.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

His wins at the latest precursors seem to have solidified what everyone has suspected for months – this is going to Nolan. Well earned and deserved after a distinguished career, I’ll be happy to see him finally being recognized on this stage.

Best Picture

Should Win: Oppenheimer

You can read my full thoughts on this film in my full review, but in short, this is just a very good movie about a very important thing that happened. It’s presented and posed brilliantly, well made, well acted, just impressive on all fronts.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

I (along with seemingly everyone else) feel quite certain this will be triumphant. Poor Things has made a big rush late in the game, but I think it will hardly be enough to topple this giant. Oddsmakers, journalists, podcasters, and bloggers like yours truly all seem to be on the same page, Oppenheimer is far and away the most likely film to be taking home the big trophy on Sunday. RIP to my beloved Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but to get my second favorite film of the year across the line still ain’t bad!