It’s tragic that the casino I was at on my recent trip to Vegas was NOT taking bets on the Oscars. Last year I went 19 for 23 categories with my predictions. This year is much tougher, campaigns have been rising and falling throughout the season, at least 4 movies have been the favorite for Best Picture at some point, there have been scandals and controversies tearing films down and lifting others up. My prognostications will therefore be a bit less certain in some categories, which will make for an exciting ceremony on Sunday!

Here go my picks for what will win, along with my picks for what should win:

Best Live-Action Short

Should Win: A Lien

I dislike the kind of issue oriented virtue signaling that is persistent in many categories at The Oscars, but most prevalently in the shorts and documentaries. Not that these issues aren’t important or shouldn’t be platformed, it’s just that it starts to feel like we’re less celebrating the art form and more lecturing the public when most of the nominated films are so pointedly showcasing the problems surrounding abortion/police brutality/the war in Ukraine/the death penalty/mass deportation/Israel and Palestine/etc.

Nevertheless, in this category and several others, I select these kinds of films as my choices. I recognize it’s a bit lame, but truthfully I just can’t pretend that I wasn’t moved by A Lien, and didn’t spend time thinking about it for days afterwards, which I just can’t say about the other shorts. If you find this pick lame, you can file a complaint here.

Will Win: A Lien

This has recently slid into the #1 spot, topping The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. Both have similar themes, but I do think the visceral nature of A Lien, will give it the edge.

Best Animated Short

Should Win: Wander to Wonder

Honestly I have very little to say about the animated shorts, so I am running with my will win pick here.

Will Win: Wander to Wonder

And here I am selecting chalk. It’s the favorite and I’ve never had a great feel for the animated shorts (cannot believe they picked the John Lennon short last year), so I’m not making a bold move with this one.

Best Documentary Short

Should Win: Incident

Another virtue signally pick, but I really loved the filmmaking conceit of this too. Stitching together security camera and body cam footage to show an unadulterated, objective view of the events feels maybe a little hands-off, but I think is actually a very considered and wise approach to this very sensitive subject (a police shooting from 2018).

Will Win: Incident

The favorite here is I am Ready, Warden at +100 but I am going with the +450 outsider. The short categories are often hard to predict, and I am thinking there will be enough people put off by the invasive nature of I am Ready, Warden that it will fall to Incident. This is probably unwise, and I am probably giving the Academy voters too much credit, but I am holding out hope.

Best Song

Should Win: Like a Bird – Sing Sing

Honestly this category is pretty dismal this year, but I’m happy to have another opportunity to shout out Sing Sing, the film is an absolute delight.

Will Win: El Mal – Emilia Perez

Picking chalk here, it’s maybe a bit weak because of the Karla Sofia Gascon scandal, but I think song is one of a few categories that should be safe from the damage done by her old tweets.

Best Sound

Should Win: Dune Part Two

The sound design is one of the most impressive parts of the beautiful immersive experience that is Dune Part Two. I only wish there were more below-the-line categories that this were a serious contender in.

Will Win: Dune Part Two

The other nominees are pretty weak in comparison to this, sound is pretty conventionally used across the rest of this slate. The favorite should take this home here.

Best Visual Effects

Should Win: Dune Part Two

Speaking of an immersive experience, the other obviously important component is the visual effects. This movie looks incredible and the effects are not just convincing, but they’re brilliantly conceived. I simply saw things in this movie I had never dreamed of, and they don’t look as meticulously manufactured as they clearly are.

Will Win: Dune Part Two

Another well-deserved favorite that has very low chance of being upset.

Best Documentary Feature

Should Win: No Other Land

This is a category where many of the films are pretty hard to see, so I am carrying on with my will-win pick here.

Will Win: No Other Land

This is a soft favorite, with Porcelain War in the #2 spot, but I do think 20 Days in Mariupol‘s win last year tips the scales in the favor of No Other Land, as it centers on a different war, where 20 Days and Porcelain War both center on the war in Ukraine.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Nosferatu

This was a tough choice for me, I really enjoyed both A Different Man, and The Substance and think the work on those movies deserves to be recognized, but I give the slightest of edges to Nosferatu. That vampire was gross, good on them.

Will Win: The Substance

Speaking of gross, The Substance is gonna win this. Got the Best Picture nom, clearly people dig it, not much to see here.

Best Costume Design

Should Win: Nosferatu

I really don’t like any of the nominations in this category this year. Another category that could have really benefitted from a Challengers nomination. Every movie nominated here I thought had pretty basic costumes with lots of reference points or looked actively bad. I chose one of the basic ones that at least has a little bit of flair on some of the main characters.

Will Win: Wicked

Mercifully, I don’t think Wicked will be winning much at this year’s ceremony, but given the weakness of the board in Costume Design, this is a pretty easy win for them. ‘Grats.

Best Score

Should Win: Challeng– alright fine, The Brutalist

In fairness, The Brutalist score is very good, so I think this is a worthy winner. The moment at the beginning of the film where Lazlo steps out of the boat and we are slammed with the main motif is pretty magical.

Will Win: The Brutalist

I don’t see any of the nominees upsetting this. Lock it in.

Best Animated Feature

Should Win: The Wild Robot

Apologies to Flow, which is a movie I enjoyed quite a bit, and it has a great production story. But for me, The Wild Robot is really the best in this category. Lupita cooked and the migration scene is an emotional wrecking ball.

Will Win: Flow

So I’m picking the second favorite again here. Flow is at +225 against The Wild Robot‘s -230 as of writing this. I just think the unconventional nature of Flow, being silent, having a tiny Latvian production crew, and the unique animation style, will all work in its favor. Either one will be a good win.

Best International Feature

Should Win: Flow

I’ll confess that, like documentary, it’s been pretty hard to see a lot of the international features, so I haven’t filled out this category as much as I would have liked, but I did really enjoy Flow and wish for it to be seen on a wider scale, so I’m recommending it here!

Will Win: I’m Still Here

That said, I’m Still Here has the best picture nomination in addition to a strong run for Fernanda Torres, so this feels pretty safe to me. Odds still have Emilia Perez pretty strong at +140, but I think that’s pretty much blown up after the aforementioned twitter scandal. There are murmurings that the scandal might not have killed the Emilia Perez campaign for this category in particular, but I am betting that the Brazilian contingent for I’m Still Here will prove to be strong.

Best Film Editing

Should Win: Anora

One of my favorite movies of the year, and I think the editing really shines in some of the most key scenes of the movie. The comedy in the second act and the heartbreak in the third are punctuated by the choices made in the pace of the edit and it’s really what makes the movie work.

Will Win: Anora

It’s pretty neck and neck between Anora and Conclave. Conclave gained a fair bit of momentum after the BAFTAs and SAG Awards, but I still think Anora will be victorious. Editing is historically a strong indicator of Best Picture, and we will get to my thoughts on that momentarily.

Best Production Design

Should Win: Dune Part Two

So this maybe gets a knock because its building off of the first one as opposed to creating a new world from scratch (Dune won this award in 2022). I still think this is just an amazing filmmaking feat and it’s an amazing world to look at. Shout out to The Brutalist as well, there’s a lot really cool stuff going on there also, but I just need to recognize Dune Part Two here.

Will Win: Wicked

Tragically, neither of those fabulous movies will be winning this category which will instead go to Wicked, which looks like crap. Oh well.

Best Cinematography

Should Win: The Brutalist

I was a bit town between The Brutalist and Dune Part Two here, but I think Dune‘s visuals thrive a bit more on the production design, while The Brutalist is simply more showy with the camera itself. Not one, but several “Holy shit, that’s a hell of a shot” moments in the theater.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Pretty solid favorite here, with Nosferatu actually trailing behind in second (which I found to be maybe just a bit to dimly lit for my liking, even though I understand the intention). For me this is a clear place to recognize the great work in The Brutalist and I think they will do so.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: Sing Sing

I adore Nickel Boys in this category, but I don’t think the screenplay is where it really shines the most, so my pick here is Sing Sing, which I think is beautifully written. I wish this film would have gotten more nominations because it’s really wonderful, but I am happy to recognize it here.

Will Win: Conclave

With the momentum this gained from BAFTA and SAG, I think this is pretty much a lock. While many people had issues with the ending (which I generally stand by, though I admit the reveal feels unearned), it seems like awards voters did not.

Best Original Screenplay

Should Win: The Brutalist

Anora is one of my favorite films of the year and has a killer screenplay, and I really loved the tight, contained writing of A Real Pain as well, but The Brutalist gets my vote for this award. None of the other nominees this year are so ambitious, so sweeping, and attack their themes with such nuance as this film. It’s a feat in that regard.

Will Win: Anora

With The Brutalist so far behind and not winning any notable precursors, it seems like Anora has this pretty well sorted. Definitely a worthy winner, just not the one I would have picked with this slate.

Best Supporting Actress

Should Win: Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown

My confession is that I don’t think any of the other nominees are really so great, so I’m kind of left with Monica Barbaro here. Zoe Saldaña and Felicity Jones are both giving a huge effort, but ultimately make a few choices that don’t totally land for me. Isabella Rossellini is kind of barely in Conclave and I just flat out didn’t like Ariana Grande in Wicked. Monica Barbaro on the other hand I think really flies out of nowhere and kills it in A Complete Unknown and wound up being one of my favorite parts of that movie.

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Perez

She’s been crushing precursors and seems to have all the cohorts locked down. A deft job of sidestepping the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion. Good on her.

Best Supporting Actor

Should Win: Yura Borisov – Anora

An actor who I’ve never seen or heard of before in a supporting part that just completely won me over little by little. He’s giving a super nuanced portrayal of a complicated character and conveying so much with so little – playing both for laughs and uneasy tension. I was blown away by Yura and I hope to see him getting more work in major American productions (if that is his wish).

Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

This appears to be the biggest lock of the entire show. He hasn’t lost a single precursor and there’s just nothing in his way. He’s piggybacking off his Succession success, to be sure, and he does give a genuinely great performance in A Real Pain, so I mean no disrespect when I say I’m a bit perplexed by how this became such a done deal. Nevertheless, it’s a done deal.

Best Lead Actress

Should Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

With great respect for what Demi Moore is doing in The Substance, I have to give it to Mikey Madison. What she’s doing physically and what she evokes emotionally is really special. She is Anora, the entire movie rests on her shoulders and she makes it happen.

Will Win: Demi Moore – The Substance

The odds don’t indicate a total blowout, there’s a chance Mikey could take this, but I think this will go to Demi as a lifetime achievement “it’s time” Oscar, especially after her great Golden Globes acceptance speech. I do hope Mikey’s time comes sooner than late.

Best Lead Actor

Should Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

In an almost direct callback to his performance in The Pianist, which made him the youngest ever Best Actor winner, Adrien Brody delivers a powerful performance in The Brutalist that won me over this year.

Will Win: Timothee Chalamet – The Brutalist

Hoping to usurp that title from Adrien Brody, Timmy has a chance to take that title “youngest ever Best Actor winner” from Adrien Brody. A slight underdog, despite an outstanding press run that included a captivating appearance on College Gameday, Timmy gained some surprise momentum with a SAG win (though this might matter less, as the fires pushed the SAG ceremony to after the end of Oscars voting). Still, to me this indicates that the actors (the largest voting body) is going for Timmy, which is a big deal.

Best Director

Should Win: Sean Baker – Anora

I just really loved this movie and Sean Baker’s commitment to telling the types of stories that clearly matter to him. He’s a director that’s put out some of the best work of the last 10 years and has gotten so little recognition for it that it’s honestly a relief to see him well represented this year.

Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

It’s somewhat tight between Baker and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, but the Anora wave just feels to me like it’s coming in a big way.

Best Picture

Should Win: Nickel Boys

It’s really really close for me between Nickel Boys and Dune Part Two. I think what’s pushing Nickel Boys over the line for me, is that while Dune was an amazing theatrical experience that felt larger than life, Nickel Boys is the film that I think pushes the boundaries of what a film can be. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a film that challenges our conception of how movies work – and actually pulls off a cohesive story. Further, this movie not only lands a cohesive story, but a heartbreaking, devastating, powerful one. I just really can’t recommend this movie enough and I’m hoping that the Oscar attention gets it more widely seen.

Will Win: Anora

What makes this year’s ceremony so exciting is that there’s so much uncertainty surrounding the nights biggest award. Anora, Conclave, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, all of these movies have had their moment being the presumed front-runner for Best Picture of 2024. A bit of that uncertainty has been whittled away as we’ve seen the precursors unveiled, and two big leaders emerge: Conclave and Anora. Anora was poised to be a heavy favorite until last-minute wins at SAG and the BAFTAs for Conclave. This does give it some momentum heading into the awards, and if we see a couple of early awards, like Editing, going to Conclave it may signify an upset. However, I think Anora is the superior film and it has the benefit of a long run acclaim. It won the Palme d’Or at it’s Cannes premier and has barely lost any steam since. Winning top awards at the Critic’s Choice, PGAs, and DGAs, this movie has both the juice and the sauce and I think will emerge victorious.

That concludes my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. I’m eager to see how I do and I feel pretty good about the slate of films we will be recognizing. In a year shrouded in uncertainty, I feel very confident in one thing: I’m gonna have a great time watching.