It’s my third year covering the Oscars on this blog. I correctly predicted 19 in 2024 and 18 in 2025 out of 23 awards. That’s an overall 80% (a B-, or the best batting average of all time). I highlight this because I think, of the years I’ve covered, this is the one with the most races that are still very much undecided. Of the major categories alone, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Cinematography, and even Best Picture are all up for grabs to one degree or another. It’s harder to pick winners but that makes the show all the more fun to watch.

Anyways, this has always been as much about expressing my own thoughts about the nominated films (I only consider the nominees in my “should win” picks) as it is about being “right”, so below you’ll find 24 picks and 24 predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

Best Live-Action Short

Should Win: The Singers

I always really like the live action shorts, and typically try to go see them at my local Angelika Film Center, which I did do this year. I found A Friend of Dorothy really endearing and I really loved how my entire theater was all laughing together with Jane Austen’s Period Drama, but the short that I was thinking about for days after was The Singers. I was moved by the way it shows how powerful music can be, and how everyone has a song in them – but most of all I found the music itself to be pretty intoxicating. I wish there was a recording of the music as sung in the short! I recommend folks check this out, as it’s available now on Netflix.

Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva

The short categories are so hard to predict, in the past 2 years the only shorts I correctly predicted were the landslide Wes Anderson short The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and the short doc The Last Repair Shop. Now looking at the board this year, it’s pretty open for live action short, but I’m putting my money on the pretty soft favorite Two People Exchanging Saliva. I found this to be kind of pretentious and up-its-own-ass, but I’m actually thinking the Oscars voters will go for that sort of thing – especially in the short categories.

Best Animated Short

Should Win: Retirement Plan

With the animated shorts, it’s usually more hit-or-miss for me, but there’s usually one or two that speak to me, and this year it was Retirement Plan that did. It’s simple and truly short at only 7 minutes, but still manages to strike a really fine emotional balance between hopefulness and melancholy. Even made me feel a bit better about Domhnall Gleeson, an actor I’ve never particularly cared for. This one (like several of the nominated shorts) is available for free on YouTube.

Will Win: Butterfly

This is a somewhat close race between Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, but I personally think Butterfly will prevail. The hand painted frames and the nature of the story are both things I think the academy will really appreciate. Still won’t be a big surprise if The Girl Who Cried Pearls upsets or even Retirement Plan sneaks in here.

Best Documentary Short

Should Win: The Devil is Busy

We will address this once again when we get to the documentary feature category, but there is a problem in the documentary branch of the Academy. I understand that the Oscars presents an opportunity to platform important issues going on in the world, and I can’t really fault anyone for sidelining their admiration for the art form in the interest of helping the world change for the better, but if I have to watch too many more of these issues-oriented, standard, basic, journalistic documentaries with ethical issues themselves (!) I am going to turn into the Joker.

Pretty much everything I watched in this category fell into the bucket described above, so I chose one that at least made me think a little. It subtly posits some questions about ethics and who gets to argue against or for what, and how they defend those stances given their own belief system and personal history. That’s more than I can say about the rest of the stuff I saw.

Will Win: All the Empty Rooms

Without many meaningful precursors and so many of the films in this race being similar in the nature of their subject matter, I’m kind of forced to just default to the market here. All the Empty Rooms, which centers victims of school shootings, is trading just shy of 70% now on Kalshi, and I have no reason to differ from this. I will say that knowing how hard this category is to predict, any of my readers who are actually betting/trading on this might have a fun play by taking the field against All the Empty Rooms, I just have a hard time seeing any of these docs reaching that level of certainty, so I think there’s more than a 30% chance of seeing something else win here.

Best Song

Should Win: I Lied to You – Sinners

Okay let me be clear – I am not trying to zag against KPop Demon Hunters. I quite like that movie and the music in it. But to quote my beloved Frank Ocean “the best song wasn’t the single”. If “Takedown” or “How It’s Done” was nominated, I’d feel better about going with it as my pick. I just don’t really understand the hype around “Golden” and it additionally gives me a moment to highlight my #1 favorite moment at the movies in 2025 – the “I Lied to You” sequence in Sinners. I found this to be a magical act of filmmaking that had me levitating in the theater, not least of all because of the power of Miles Caton and Ludwig Göransson going absolutely goblin mode on this song.

Will Win: Golden – KPop Demon Hunters

Okay now that I’ve done my bit, I can tell you with absolute certainty that “Golden” will be winning this award. I’ll be happy to see the film recognized, just not the song I’d have picked.

Best Sound

Should Win: Sinners

I usually have a clear favorite in this category, but this year I actually had a hard time picking my “Should Win”. Frankenstein and One Battle I thought had kind of invisible sound design (though I do love how shitty Bob’s car sounds in the final chase), which isn’t bad but also isn’t particularly remarkable. I thought Sirât could take this for me, and the sound is very good, but the non-diegetic music is really where the sound shines, which to me isn’t exactly what this award is for. But the more I thought about it the more I think the sound in Sinners is really a big contributor to its success. The sounds of hard soles against the wood floors of the juke joint, the noises made by the vampires as they feed and kill, the twangs of acoustic instruments invoking that delta south aura – it all makes the world of this movie feel that much more lived-in and real.

Will Win: F1

VRRRRRRRBRUBRUBRUVVVRRRRRRRRRR-NEEEOOOOOOOOM-NEEEOOOOOOOOOM-VRRROOOOMMMMMBRERBERBERBRER

They should actually just rename this to “most sound” – it always wins. I have seen some pundits suggest that Sirât could upset here because the audio is such a big part of the experience of that movie, but I just think F1 is what is going to come to voter’s minds when they are thinking about sound.

Best Visual Effects

Should Win: F1

In a world where visual effects usually means CGI, it’s refreshing to see a movie recognized in this category that mostly uses practical effects and uses computers almost solely to enhance in-camera effects. As much as I can defend the superhero movie boom, it’s undoubtedly poisoned the aesthetic of our movies and F1 is a very welcome return to form – it looks great – it looks real.

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Annoying.

Best Documentary Feature

Should Win: The Perfect Neighbor

As I alluded to earlier, many of the Best Documentary nominees in recent years have been issues oriented journalistic endeavors and many of them have bordered on ethical concerns of their coverage of these issues. The Perfect Neighbor is not without these concerns, but I did find it more engaging than the other docs I watched, which is a credit to the filmmaking. I also found that it made me think about our institutions in a way that didn’t feel like it was telling me the answer, but rather presenting me with the facts and allowing me to draw my own conclusions, which is something I have come to appreciate with these types of films.

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor

This is the most widely seen of the documentaries (which might matter less nowadays with the rule change that voters must watch all the nominated films) but I think that populist acclaim will help it along here. There’s an outside chance for Mr. Nobody Against Putin, which I did not think was very good, but that speaks more to the virtue signaling that permeates in this category to no end. The war in Ukraine and the militarization of Russia are important issues no doubt, but there’s no need to be silly and pretend that that was the best documentary made in 2025.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Frankenstein

It’s kind of boring in this category when you have a Frankenstein where the makeup and hairstyling is so bodacious and loud that it kind of just washes out any other potential contenders. It’s deserved, but it doesn’t spark much interesting discussion.

Will Win: Frankenstein

In addition to having the loudest hair and makeup of the nominees, this also comes from Guillermo Del Toro, who is beloved around town, and picked up 9 nominations for his Frankenstein movie. Let’s button this up and move on.

Best Costume Design

Should Win: Marty Supreme

Sinners is a fine pick here as well, but I didn’t really care for the costumes in Hamnet or Frankenstein and I’m obviously not picking Avatar, so I’m going with my boy Martin. The costumes are period-accurate like they are in Sinners but I think Marty does more with costumes to define character than what Sinners did (torn pantyhose vs elegant dresses, tuxedos vs drab shirts, etc.).

Will Win: Frankenstein

The academy really digs this movie all around and there are some more extravagant moments with the costumes (I think the moment with the red veil in the wind is doing a lot of work here) that make this top-of-mind for voters.

Best Score

Should Win: Sinners

Once again Ludwig Göransson brought the heat and delivered easily the best score of 2025. Other nominees need not show up to the ceremony.

Will Win: Sinners

And this will be his third Oscar for Best Score! It’s beginning to feel like we have our next Hanz Zimmer, who was our next John Williams, who was our next Bernard Herrmann, who was our next Max Steiner.

Best Animated Feature

Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters

Alright now you can all calm down about the Best Song pick. I like this movie! I like it so much in fact, that I’m putting it above Zootopia 2 and picking it as should-win for this category. This created a cultural moment and I cherish when movies get brought to the center of culture because of one phenomenon – this did that.

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

Markets are all agreeing on this and so am I. Congratulations to the Netflix corporation – you will win Best Picture someday (probably) (maybe) (I dunno).

Best International Feature

Should Win: It was Just an Accident

I was not familiar with the work of Jafar Panahi before seeing this, but now that I have I’m very interested to check out his earlier work. I found this to really be funny and poignant and it has one of the most powerful endings I saw this year. Apologies to Joachim Trier, who I adore, but when thinking about what to honor this year, Panahi just edged you out.

Will Win: Sentimental Value

There’s two real contenders here between Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. Both of these are running in Best Picture, both have received international acclaim and both have other nominations including major acting categories. What gives Sentimental Value the edge is its 9 nominations to The Secret Agent’s 4. Nominations in picture, director, screenplay, editing, and 4 (!) acting nominations mean that this has broad appeal across many branches of the academy and so this has the perceived edge heading into Sunday. Now we can’t forget – there is a large Brazilian contingent in the Academy these days, so don’t be surprised if The Secret Agent sneaks this one through, but my money is on Sentimental Value.

Best Casting

Should Win: Marty Supreme

New award! How fun. I’m sure as we get used to this award there will be a learning curve to what exactly this award is and what makes good casting vs a good cast and all that jazz, but I once again turn to Marty Supreme as my vote to win the inaugural casting Oscar. I just really love hearing the stories of Josh Safdie finding people from instagram videos and pulling people who are very famous but not for acting, like Tyler The Creator and Mr. Wonderful (and previously Kevin Durant), and using their public reputation to his advantage. Then pulling folks like Abel Ferrara, a legend of New York film, and former SAG-AFTRA president Fren Drescher, and also centering lesser known star Odessa A’Zion, who I thought was dynamite. I just really Safdie has a brilliant eye for casting and it’s on display in a big way here.

Will Win: Sinners

More like Least Casting amirite? They got one guy playing two parts!! But seriously, it tracks that in the first year of a new category, the Academy would want to honor a legend who’s been at the top of the game for a long time, and they have that in Francine Maisler, who’s filmography is pretty bonkers actually. There is some cool stuff here like pulling Hailee Steinfeld for the Mary role, or Delroy Lindo for Delta Slim, both of which are perfect, but the real achievement is finding Miles Caton, who comes out of nowhere (just look at this) and carries the movie for long stretches going toe to toe with MBJ giving a career performance. This is the favorite and I have to say I don’t see why it won’t go this way.

Best Film Editing

Should Win: Marty Supreme

This award is often ethereal to me. A film with a great score, or a great performance, or great costumes is usually something that pops, something that feels loud. Whereas a film with great editing is usually not something that screams at you – it’s just rolled into what makes it a good movie. So my should-win picks in this category are usually films where I notice the editing (and not in a bad way), and this year is no exception. The pacing of Marty Supreme is a feat in itself, and expert editing is what allows that motor to hum along without feeling jarring or alienating.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

[add note about the dizzying editing in the prologue]

This is the favorite and has the BAFTA plus the ACE Award in comedy (Sinners won in Drama), and I don’t really think we’ll get a surprise here. There has been a movement for F1 in this category, which I actually like, the race sequences are really good and those are hard to edit, but I think One Battle will prevail, despite my distaste for the editing in the first half hour. It will be a huge sign of weakness for Best Picture if this loses here.

Best Production Design

Should Win: Marty Supreme

Okay, so I didn’t have this one so high walking out of the theater. The other contenders have their merits – Hamnet built their own version of the Globe Theater, the immigrant camps in One Battle are well designed enough to make their invocation unmistakable, Sinners basically built an entire town in addition to the perfect vibes in the juke joint, and Frankenstein is doing the typical GDT thing. But after hearing the Big Picture Interview with legendary production designer Jack Fisk, I had to give one more shout to Marty Supreme. The fact that they shot in the New York City of 2025, but never for a moment looks like it is not the New York City of 1952 is really a major feat of production designing that I can’t even conceive of.

Will Win: Frankenstein

Now I have always confessed openly that Guillermo Del Toro’s visual sensibilities are a like black licorice to me. Some people seem to really enjoy it but I just have a physical distaste for it. I’m nevertheless glad that people who like it can have their fill. So here I am once again, as we appear to have all decided that this needs to win best production design (currently trading at 91% on Kalshi). I don’t really get it, but as I always say, art is subjective.

Best Cinematography

Should Win: Train Dreams

So I’ll confess here that the two front runners, One Battle and Sinners, both have pretty amazing feats of cinematography and are deserving nominees and either of them will be a deserving winner. But I’m choosing Train Dreams as my should win because of how incredibly the soft touch of the lens conveys the soft tone of the narrative. The way the trees and nature are placed in such warm light and how they are juxtaposed against the cold landscape of the modern city at the end really serve to punch home the theme of the film.

Will Win: One Battler After Another

Now this is an interesting one. One Battle is in the lead, and as you can read, is my pick for the win. The car chase at the and is enough to secure a win, but running in second place is Sinners, which has a more acrobatic cinematographic mode in the “I lied to You” sequence – and with IMAX cameras to boot, which are huge and noisy and hard to work with. If Sinners does take this award down, it’ll be a real “don’t look now” moment for the Best Picture race. Live odds will swing, but if you’re quick you might be able to secure some value.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Of all the contenders in Adapted Screenplay, this is easily the one I’ve turned over in my head the most. It’s got more to say and says it with more tact than anything else here. It’s an aging Gen Xer saying to his young millennial/Gen Z daughter “we tried to fight to make the world a better place and we failed, and now it’s time for you to take up the fight with the hope that you can find success where we didn’t”. It’s a beautiful statement and it’s told through such a fun story – I think we have to recognize this, especially when we have the nifty second screenwriting category to put this in.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

One of the hardest locks of the night honestly, bag this one up.

Best Original Screenplay

Should Win: Sinners

I briefly considered putting Marty Supreme here as I do love that screenplay, and I also think Sinners can be messy at times, but ultimately using the vampires as a metaphor for how fake white “allies” can suck the life out of black art and artists for the benefit of a populist hive-mind is just so smart and so fun I can’t let it go unrecognized.

Will Win: Sinners

Best Original Screenplay is often the award that is given to the “cool” movie that the Academy wants to recognize but doesn’t want to actually give the top prize to because it’s not “serious cinema”. This is where they have recognized movies like Pulp Fiction, Fargo, Get Out, Her, Almost Famous and many other classics of IYKYK cinema. While the Best Picture race is certainly not decided this year, I think the love for Sinners will surely shine through in this category.

Best Supporting Actress

Should Win: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

In a very tight race, I think Teyana Taylor’s performance is the one that feels the strongest to me. With limited screen time, she just takes over the movie completely – overpowering Leo and even Sean Penn who’s doing a very loud, very weird performance, until she is ushered out of the narrative, but remains a very present figure in the story. Without her dynamic performance, the whole movie would just feel like it’s missing something, which is why I’m going with her.

Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons

Make no mistake, while this will likely be the first award given out, it is the closest race of the night. Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, and Wunmi Mosaku could all conceivably take this award home. I give the edge to Amy Madigan because she took home the SAG Award, even though Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA and Teyana Taylor the Golden Globe. It’s really anybody’s race here but I gotta call my shot and my intuition says that giving one award to a well liked movie like Weapons which is not nominated anywhere else, is going to provide Amy Madigan with the slightest of advantages. We will see!

Best Supporting Actor

Should Win: Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another

“Oh I’ve had a few… few small beers” I would die for Sensei Sergio. It’s such an amazing character in a movie that desperately needed a tension breaking, anxiety easing element, which is provided in spades by Benicio’s acting. Hearing PTA talk about how that was originally a smaller part and Benicio came to set with this entire persona and backstory that was not really in the script and they expanded his presence in the movie after seeing how well it worked only contributes more to my admiration for this performance.

Will Win: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgård have flip flopped the 1 and 2 spot a couple of times in the race this season, but the win at SAG for Penn has made it a little clearer. It could still be either of them, especially with Penn frequently not campaigning or attending events, and presently rumored to not be showing up to the show on Sunday, as well as the international branch being included in Oscars voting but not SAG. On the other hand, this award more commonly goes to a villain – a character audiences can hate. Both performances are very good and would be deserving wins, and there’s been some murmurings that Delroy Lindo could shock here, but I think this will ultimately come to the loudest performance in the group which is Sean Penn’s audacious villain performance.

Best Lead Actress

Should Win: Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Not since Cast Away have I seen a film that so solely depends on closeups of one actors face to carry the movie for 2 hours. I have mixed feelings about the movie overall, but the Rose Byrne performance is undeniable, you feel her exhaustion, her anger, her anxiety, her sadness, all pushing through all at once. I’ve never so desperately wished for a character to get a good break as I did for hers in this film.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

I think this was a pretty good performance, and it’s worth noting that there are two (count em, TWO) birth scenes, which the academy always seems to fawn over. But she is now trading at nearly 97% and I see no reason to bet against her.

Best Lead Actor

Should Win: Michael B Jordan – Sinners

I wrestled with this one. I really really really love what Timmy is doing in Marty Supreme, and I am forever grateful that he will be part of our lives for years to come. Not to mention great performances from Leo, Wagner Moura, and Ethan Hawke (I really wish there was a good way for me to recognize Blue Moon somewhere, maybe if I had a blog or something). But ultimately, here at the last moment, I find myself just struck by the power of MBJ’s performance in Sinners. The dual character aspect is part of it – the fact that, shot from behind seeing only his back, you can tell whether he is Smoke or Stack. And they’re not even that different! But he found the subtlety, the reality of each character and brought them to life. That’s acting at the highest level. Timmy it will be your time soon, I promise. Don’t chase it, let it come.

Will Win: Michael B Jordan – Sinners

This is a very, very tight race. It’s a great crop of nominees and the two at the top are in a dogfight. The “vibe shift” of Sinners love captivating rooms, and the SAG win for MBJ, plus the downward trend for Chalamet involving Marty/Timmy personality confusion and the ballet/opera controversy put MBJ at the top to me. Don’t forget about the possibility too for a tight 1/2 vote split allowing a 3rd place contender to slip in, like Leo or Wagner Moura. But I’m putting my money on the fastest horse and that is Michael B Jordan.

Best Director

Should Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners

There are so many reasons to honor Coogler for this – the conception of the film, the conceit of the metaphor, the box office performance, the IMAX rollout, the unforgettable “I Lied to You” scene, the post-credit scene, but I think most importantly the foresight that for this specific movie, Coogler demanded that the rights return to him after 25 years. Adding that meta aspect, that his film about the theft of black art will be owned by the black artist who created it is what makes me excited to award him my Best Director vote. I know some of this gets into producer vs director territory, but I don’t care, it’s his movie and I think it’s one of the coolest acts of filmmaking I have seen since I started covering this stuff.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

“It’s time”. You hear a lot about the “It’s Time” Oscar that goes to someone who’s been really important to film goers and filmmakers for a long time but has never been formally recognized. I myself love the films of PTA and I will be excited to see him honored on Sunday. He’s not my personal pick this year, but all signs point to PTA taking this home.

Best Picture

Should Win: One Battle After Another

I have agonized over this for weeks. Sinners and One Battle are so close in my mind; one day I choose one and the next I choose the other. I’m sure the minute I publish this I will want to take it back and choose Sinners. I love both of these films, but there can be only one winner and I think what this is coming down to for me is the tightness of One Battle, vs the messiness of Sinners. I think Sinners is having more fun, but with that comes some cut-corners and some narrative points that are just not fully bolted down, whereas One Battle leaves nothing unpolished and executes with no major objectionable errors. Sinners was my favorite theatergoing experience this year, but One Battle is the movie I feel like dives in with the smallest splash.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

One Battle After Another has won the DGA, the PGA, the WGA, the BAFTA, the ACE, multiple critics awards and most importantly the Loosely Scripted Should Win Best Picture Award. If it were to lose, it would be among the biggest Best Picture upsets in Oscars history. HOWEVER, Sinners has more nominations than One Battle, and in fact more nominations than any other film in the history of the Academy Awards, indicating widespread support across all the guilds and branches of the Academy. Additionally, Sinners took home the top prize at the SAG awards, indicating support from the largest branch of the Academy – the actors. It’s far from decided which will make tracking the outcomes of the various key categories like Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Supporting Actor/Actress throughout the night important in keeping score about how the top prize may pan out. My pick is on One Battle because of the strength of its performance in the precursors, the resonance of the subject matter with Academy voters, and the power of the film itself. I won’t be surprised and I wont be the one upset if Sinners wins this.

That’s all I got for the 98th Academy Awards! I think I’ll be attending my first Oscars watch party this year so I’m really looking forward to going nonverbal in a social setting while I’m just locked in on the TV screen. Happy Super Bowl of Movies to all who celebrate!